Of Bombs and Regime Change: Experts Weigh the Israel-U.S. Strategy on Iran
Both the Americans and Israelis have for decades sought to topple the Islamic Republic. With Khamenei assassinated by Israeli bombing, is the end game near?
The United States and Israel bombed Iran on February 28 following another round of talks on Iran’s nuclear program, which Omani mediators said was close to an agreement.
In the opening salvo, U.S. President Donald Trump announced that Iran had walked away from a deal and that his country and Israel were coordinating attacks to prevent Iran from rebuilding its nuclear program.
“For these reasons, the United States military is undertaking a massive and ongoing operation to prevent this very wicked, radical dictatorship from threatening America and our core national security interests. We’re going to destroy their missiles and raze their missile industry to the ground. It will be totally again obliterated. We’re going to annihilate their navy[…] They will never have a nuclear weapon.”
However, less than 24 hours after Iran responded with attacks on Israel and Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and the UAE, all of whom host U.S. military bases. The attacks killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and at least forty other Iranian officials.
In contrast to the U.S. attacks on Iran in July, which had a limited goal of compelling Iran into a ceasefire with Israel during the twelve day war, these recent “major combat operations” appear to have a much broader goal: cause regime change in Iran without the deployment of U.S. troops in the country.
We asked Cairo Review contributors for their opinion on Trump’s goals, whether they can be achieved, and what the future holds for Iran and its people.
Political scientist, author, and professor emeritus in the Department of Politics at the University of Virginia.
This is Trump’s war entirely, with encouragement from Netanyahu. There has been no open debate in Congress, little real discussion in the media, and Trump spent only three minutes in his recent lengthy State of the Union speech to the American people on the crisis with Iran.
In short, all we can do is look at the list of things he has said: No nuclear weapons for Iran. No enrichment of uranium for Iran. No missiles for Iran. And, most importantly, the regime should be overthrown—but not by sending American soldiers into Iran. In short, he wants a military conflict like the twelve day war in 2025, but with a much more ambitious outcome. This strikes me as not only impossible to achieve, but also not in America’s national interest.
Finally, we were in negotiations with Iran which seemed to be making progress, so this attack was totally unnecessary. However, Trump loves to be unpredictable, and we will just have to hope that he and his pathetically ill-informed advisers come to their senses. He may even calculate that this will help his party in the upcoming midterm elections. He is quite likely wrong on that point.
Iranian journalist and media studies researcher with a master’s degree in political journalism from Columbia University
This war of aggression against Iran has communicated to bad actors that disregarding international law can be affordable, and depending on who violates the law, accountability may never be required. Even if the war ends right now, every actor in the conflict has already lost the race for principles. The Iranian government’s authoritarianism has dragged it into this abyss. The U.S. government has failed the Iranian people through decades of onerous sanctions that have strangulated them. Meanwhile, the Israeli regime has now added Iranians to its list of expendable civilians.
It is almost impossible to try to foretell the ramifications, but it’s abundantly clear, both from historical precedent and the emerging signs, that what will ensue from this period of chaos will not be self-determination for the people of Iran. They have already been ex-communicated and do not have a say in what’s happening to them and their future, so it’s highly unlikely that a thriving, fully-functioning democracy will be the outcome of this campaign of violence.
Paris-based Middle East advisor, non-resident fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute, and a Sultan Qaboos Cultural Center research fellow for 2025-26
The attacks on Iran by the United States and Israel appear designed to support regime change in Iran. Though the Supreme Leader has been killed, much uncertainty remains as to whether the Islamic Republic will be a less—and not more—dangerous actor in the region and globally. Gulf countries, which are close partners and allies of the United States, remain on the front line of regional shifts involving Iran and have suffered alarming attacks and disruptions stemming from Iranian retaliation. These governments will seek to be critical inputs for Washington as the Trump administration clarifies its objectives going forward in this fast-moving situation.
Senior visiting fellow at the German Marshall Fund and a senior fellow for International Security and Geopolitics at the Hague Centre for Strategic Studies
For weeks now, it has been a question of when—not if—the U.S would attack Iran. Once again, under the fog of ongoing negotiations, the United States and Israel struck Iran. It seems there was never a deal to be had, casting another blow to the credibility of U.S. diplomacy. With the assassination of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamanei, the United States and Israel will achieve the sought leadership change in Tehran. Less certain is whether the desired regime change will follow.
