Iran’s role in the “end-state diplomatic model” of conflict resolution and crisis management in the Middle East
Ali Abdullah Saleh’s death could be the end of the Houthis, or a blessing in disguise. The future course of the Yemeni conflict hinges on whether and how Houthis will prevail without him.
A victory in the civil war, by either side, is unlikely to bring peace.
Iranian support for the Houthis has been marginal and does not shape their decision making as much as local alliances and conflict dynamics do.
Saudi Arabia’s campaign in Yemen has boosted popular support for the Houthis and is fueling greater anti-Saudi sentiment.
Saudi Arabia is supporting an ever wider range of Yemeni actors willing to fight the Houthis, but their political ambitions and regionally limited capabilities are at odds with the kingdom’s interest in a unified Yemen.
More than sectarianism or foreign intervention, the civil war is driven by broken politics. In Yemen, the self-interest of leaders creates political dead ends.